Apologies for the lack of enthusiasm on this site as of late. There is a direct correlation between my training and my energy level, hence my absence. Granted, part of the reason is because as far as I'm concerned, the month of July should be been renamed le Tour because nothing else really matters right now does it? In fact, it's probably the only month of the year when I can tolerate being injured. Two years in a row now. Oh well.
Yesterday was the first day in the Pyrenees, and from what I observed, I'll say right now that Lance will win his 8th Tour de France. He didn't win the stage and he wasn't even the first Astana rider to cross the line after Contador broke team orders and flew the coup. He may not even be the physically strongest rider in the race. However, in my mind, if Alberto was trying to stamp his authority as team leader of Astana he should have either picked a better time to do it, or done a better job with it. Armstrong didn't even bat an eyelid as he came by on the climb up to Andorre Arcalis, and only finished 21 seconds back. To anyone who has watched Lance over the years and can read into his non-verbal expressions it was advantage Armstrong. He has learned to play the master politician when it comes to the press, which is in stark contrast to his early days as a bike racer, but he is clearly the team leader, the smartest rider in the peloton, and has more knowledge and experience than everyone else combined. It's the subtleties of this event that makes it so exciting for me, because you cannot rely on the obvious to fully assess how a rider is doing. The strongest rider on the day does not always show his cards and you often have to look carefully to see exactly who is waiting to assert themselves in the most effective manner and this is exactly how I saw Stage 7.
Most followers believe that this race will be decided by the time we reach the final climb up to Mont Ventoux on Stage 20. With the Alps coming so late in the Tour this year, I'm going to call that this is not going to be the case, and rather that Armstrong takes the Yellow Jersey at the 11th hour. The 4 toughest days in the saddle are undoubtedly stages 16-20; 3 tough climbing days with an individual time-trial sandwiched in between. Lance won't win that Time Trial. In fact, I don't think he'll be top 5 which will unprecedented for him. The obvious fairytale ending would be for him to destroy everybody on the climb up to Mont Ventoux after losing time to Contador during stage 18, and I personally think that this is exactly how it's going to play out. Alberto is certainly the stronger rider in terms of physical capability, but he has show some weakness in not being able to rein himself back, and I think this is what is going to cost him the top spot at the 2009 Tour de France. I'm sticking my neck out big-time by making such bold predictions. That's what you do though when you believe the man to be one of the greatest endurance athletes ever to grace this planet.
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